The following comments are as of 2:40 p.m. when the S&P 500 was up 14.93 points. They are subject to change based on how we close today.
You would think it would be easy to find attractive buy candidates across numerous asset classes today. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Our ETF screens currently rank SPY (S&P 500) 28th (out of 136), which means “more attractive” options are ranked between 1 and 27. When you look at the charts of ETFs 1 through 27, they have somewhat of a tepid look.
We made a small addition to our allocations on April 17. The S&P 500 closed at 1390.78 on that day. Today’s high is 1391. In addition to more conviction in the charts, a close above 1390 would be a welcome sign.
Just as the nominal value of the S&P 500 has made little progress recently, our technical checklist to monitor improving odds of a lasting turn still only sits at 60% (see below).
We are inclined to make no moves today. If we do see some improvement late in the day, any buys would be small relative to the size of our accounts. The big picture looks positive but this turn still has some work to do.