Contact / Ask Us

About Us

Meeting Locations

Offerings & Fees

Short Takes BLOG

Market Model



Risk Model

80-20 Correction Index

Portfolio Models:

 Moderate Growth

 Aggressive Growth

CCM Atlanta - Meeting Locations

As independent money managers, we provide long-term wealth and estate preservation strategies and prudent investment advice in a challenging environment for investors. If you are looking for an asset manager or money manager who adjusts investment allocations to align with present market conditions, Ciovacco Capital Management may be a good fit for you.

CCM Market Model - Stock Market Model - Ciovacco Capital - Atlanta

CCM Growth Model - Stock Market Model - Ciovacco Capital - Atlanta
CCM Portfolio Models
The CCM Growth Model

Objective: Provide long-term growth while reducing the probability of large portfolio drawdowns, especially in bear markets. The model seeks to outperform the S&P 500 during a complete market cycle, which includes a bull and bear market. During favorable periods, the growth model can allocate a larger percentage of the portfolio to higher beta assets (small caps, technology, emerging markets, etc.) relative to the moderate portfolio.

Total Return Backtested Performance vs. S&P 500 ETF SPY (2003-2015)
Net Results After All Fees & Transaction Costs

CCM Growth Model

Reasonable Fees: The backtested performance figures shown above include all CCM fees and transaction costs. CCM's fees are calculated and deducted on a quarterly basis. Fees vary from quarter to quarter based on the portfolio's composition. The average annual fee in the period above (2003-2015) was 0.80%. More information on management fees.

Annual Total Return (2003-2015)
CCM Growth Model vs. SPY Buy and Hold

Backtested Performance - Assumes $500K Initial Investment
CCM Backtested Historical Results
The performance data shown includes backtested past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate. Therefore, investors' accounts may be worth more or less than their original deposit. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data cited. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations unlike actual performance record; simulated results do not represent actual trading.

About The CCM Growth Model

Market Exposure: The market model allocates between more conservative assets, such as bonds, and more growth-oriented assets, such as foreign and domestic stocks. The most common ETFs selected by the model include, but are not limited to:
  • SPY - S&P 500
  • EFA - Foreign stocks
  • EEM - Emerging markets
  • IWM - Small caps
  • QQQ - Technology
  • XLP - Consumer staples
  • GLD - Gold
  • IEF - Intermediate-term Treasuries
  • TLT - Long-term Treasury
  • AGG - Aggregate bond market
  • SH - Short S&P 500*
* = Under specific and well-defined conditions, the model can select to hedge or go short using SH (short S&P 500) or similar hedging/short ETFs.

Methodology Step One: Determine portfolio's allocation to more conservative assets and growth-oriented assets. The CCM Moderate Growth Model uses input from five proprietary sub-models providing a form of allocation redundancy. The final allocation is determined via a weighted average from the five distinct sources. This weighted average approach provides a more robust methodology, enabling the model to handle a much wider variety of market conditions. The weighted average approach also reduces the probability of curve fitting.

CCM Growth Model Methodology

Methodology Step Two: Compare alternatives in each allocation category (conservative & growth-oriented) head-to-head using a proprietary trend-following methodology. For example, in the growth-oriented category, small caps are compared to all other options. The least attractive alternatives are eliminated allowing the model to focus on the strongest areas of the global markets.

Trend Following Model - Money Manager

Other Options: The CCM Aggressive Growth Model allows for greater exposure to higher beta assets, such as gold, small caps, and emerging markets. To reduce volatility the CCM Moderate Growth Model limits exposure to higher beta ETFs.

Model Inputs: The CCM Equity Step-In and CCM Equity Step-Out Models were created using historical data from the CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI) and CCM 80-20 Correction Index (80-20). The CCM Market Risk Model (MRM) is also an integral piece of the CCM Moderate Growth Model.

Additional Resources:

Stock Market Blog By Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital
Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com

Terms of Use. The performance information presented in certain charts or tables represent backtested performance from December 31, 2002 to the period ending date shown, using the model to select ETFs and to rebalance the portfolio. Backtested performance is hypothetical (it does not reflect trading in actual accounts) and is provided for informational purposes only to indicate historical performance had the model portfolios been available over the relevant time period. CCM did not offer the model portfolios until July 2013. Backtested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Backtested performance results have inherent limitations, some of which are described herein. Backtested returns do not represent the performance results of actual trading and are calculated through the retroactive application of the Adviser's model portfolio configuration, designed with the benefit of hindsight. Since backtested performance results do not represent actual trading, they may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on the decision-making of the Adviser, if the Adviser was actually managing the client assets. No representation is being made that the Adviser's strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently significant material differences between backtested performance results and performance results subsequently achieved by following a particular strategy. In addition, backtested performance does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of back-tested performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. The back-tested performance results shown reflect the deduction of: (i) an average annual asset management fee of 0.81%; and (ii) estimated transaction fees and other expenses that a client would experience. The results portrayed reflect the reinvestment of dividends, interest and other income, as appropriate. Backtested performance results assume weekly rebalancing at the end of each week. It is important to understand that the assumption of weekly rebalancing has an impact on the annual and weekly returns shown. For weekly rebalancing, the weekly return is calculated with the assumption that the portfolio is perfectly in balance at the beginning of each week. In actual portfolios, however, rebalancing occurs at no set time, and such actions are dependent on both market conditions and individual client liquidity inflows and outflows, along with the cost impact of such transactions on the overall portfolio. As with any investment strategy, there is potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss. CCM does not guarantee any minimum level of investment performance or the success of any client account, model portfolio, or investment strategy. All investments involve risk and investment recommendations will not always be profitable. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtested results do not guarantee future results. Results are compared to the performance of the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) for informational purposes only. The Adviser's investment program does not mirror the S&P 500 Index and the volatility of the Adviser's investment program may be materially different. The securities or other instruments included in the S&P 500 Index are not necessarily included in the Adviser's portfolio and criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500 Index are different than those for investment by the Adviser. The performance of the S&P 500 Index ETF was obtained from published sources believed to be reliable, but which are not warranted as to accuracy or completeness. Unless noted otherwise, the returns of indices presented herein do not reflect fees or transaction costs, nor net dividends, if any. A description of each index follows: The S&P 500 Index, a diversified index that includes the stocks of 500 U.S. listed, large capitalization companies in major industries. All references to SPY are to the total return form of the ETF. Past performance, including hypothetical past performance, is not indicative of future performance. There can be no assurance that the Adviser will achieve its objectives. Any performance information, market analysis or data or other information is not warranted by Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC (CCM or Ciovacco Capital) as to completeness or accuracy express or implied, and such information is subject to change without notice. CCM's investment strategies may change from time to time based on market condition and enhancements to its investment methods and strategy without further notice. This website and the information contained herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a complete description of our investment services, funds or strategies. The data in this website have been prepared by CCM and have not been reviewed, compiled or audited by an independent public accountant. The views expressed on this website represent the current, good faith views of the authors at the time of publication. Please be aware that these views are subject to change at any time and without notice of any kind. CCM assumes no duty and does not undertake to update these views or any forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices or values) has been obtained from sources that Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM) considers to be reliable; however, CCM makes no representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any decision made or action taken by you or any third party in reliance upon the data. Some results are derived using historical estimations from available data. Readers are urged to check with tax advisors before making any investment decisions. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.